Why have climate change predictions been so WRONG?
In this video I wanted to address a common talking point – why have climate change predictions been so wrong? Year after year predictions are made that have no basis in reality, so why – especially in the aftermath of the latest IPCC report – should we trust climate scientists? In particular James Hansen and his prediction in 1988 didn’t turn out so well, did it?
Well, as it turns out, there’s a very good reason. Because they’re right most of the time, and their predictions, including those of the IPCC, have been borne out by reality. Sorry lol.
REFERENCES
(1) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085378
(2) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2270237/
(3) WG1 AR6 https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
(4) This figure originally taken from https://skepticalscience.com/Hansen-1988-prediction-advanced.htm
(5) Oreskes, N., & Conway, E. M. (2010). Merchants of doubt: how a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming. New York: Bloomsbury Press.
